Reinsurance rate declines may slow by 2028, soft market floor may not be found till 2030: Jefferies

Analysts from Jefferies are not confident that reinsurance leadership teams are fully-acknowledging how fast rates have been softening and believe that the focus will shift to terms and conditions from 2028, while a soft market floor may not be found until 2030.

The equity analyst team at investment bank Jefferies have a view that the executive teams of major reinsurance firms may have been overly hopeful about the direction of travel in reinsurance pricing.

They explain, “For the past 18 months, every reinsurance management team has pushed back on investor expectations for a soft market, emphasising that the starting point for margins was a risk-adjusted all-time high and that prices were softening, but not soft.

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